P2P-Banking.com

In the UK Zopa expects a record month of new p2p loans funded. CEO Giles Andrews told P2P-Banking.com today: “We are going through some dramatic growth at the moment. July was a record month with 908 loans for 4.5 million GBP, but we should do 1100 for 5.5 million GBP in August.”

This twitter post caused some speculation that Zopa UK is working to add a secondary market to the p2p lending service. I didn’t contact Zopa management asking to comment on this for I believe they probably would neither have confirmed nor denied plans on a secondary market.

As discussed before the issue with offering a secondary market isn’t the technical or commercial implications, but to find a model that is in compliance with regulation.

P2P Lending is mostly anonymous and loans are unsecured. To make the risks of lending to a stranger acceptable for lenders, p2p lending services had to provide models for the lenders to judge the dimension of the risk of not getting paid back.

The initial estimation of the risk-level could not come from the platform itself as it had no track record and could not build a model that “calculated” the level of risk involved for the lender. The consistent consequence was that nearly all p2p lenders relied on established third party providers for credit history data and credit scores. Prosper for example showed Experian data on default levels to be expected depending on credit grade.

Over the time it became obvious that the actual default levels at Prosper were much higher than the expected default levels based on Experian data. We don’t actually need to argue here what led to this (be it financial development of the economy, be it that p2p lending attracted bad risks, be it a poor validation process), but the result was that since defaults were much higher than expected, lender ROIs were much lower than expected at the time of the investment.

And this is not Prosper specific. Several other p2p lending services show clear signs that default levels will (or have) surpassed the initially published percentages of defaults to be expected based on external data.

Boober failed due to default levels, on Smava levels are higher than the Schufa percentages fore-casted, same is likely for Auxmoney defaults which will be higher then Schufa and Arvato Infoscore data suggested. The one exception from the rule is Zopa UK, which successfully manages to keep defaults low, as CEO Giles Andrews rightly points out.

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The House of Representatives yesterday passed a bill that will move regulation of p2p lending services from the SEC to the newly created Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) in Spring 2010, provided the Senate and President Obama approve the new legislation.

Oversight by the SEC meant that Prosper, Lending Club and other p2p lending companies in the US had to go through an arduous registration process in the past, which forced them to close for new business for several months. Zopa even decided to exit the US market.

Prosper CEO Chris Larsen welcomed this development, saying: “In terms of how the Bill relates to peer-to-peer lending, we’ve always believed that the industry should be regulated as a bank-like sector by a strong, holistic regulator focused on providing robust protections for both lenders and borrowers…”.

Zopa has changed it’s debt purchase process due to changes in legislation. (more…)

The following video was produced by Elektrischer Reporter for German TV ZDF. The elaborate production is different from most other TV coverage I have seen, as it does not focus on one platform but rather tries to grasp the concept of p2p lending as a whole.

Furthermore it differs by the eye-catching make. But see for yourself:

Unfortunately it is available in German language only.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has just published a 19 page working paper by Ian J. Galloway on “Peer-to-Peer Lending and Community Development Finance“. It examines Kiva, Zopa, Prosper, MicroPlace and Lending Club.

Quote from the conclusion of the article:

While online platforms may never replace conventional lending institutions, such as banks, it is important that the community development finance industry be aware of this emerging technology. Moreover, P2P finance platforms will continue to evolve—allowing for third-party issued loan sales, for example—which may fundamentally alter the way credit is allocated in the future. In either case, the potential community development finance implications are too significant to ignore.

P2P lending services continue to grow. In some markets the speed of growth has even accelerated.

P2P-Banking.com has created the following overview table listing services in operation and ranked them by loan volume funded in the past 6 months.

This image may be reprinted on other internet sites, provided it is not altered or resized and the following text (including the direct link to this article) is given as source directly below the image:
Source: P2P-Banking.com

For some service like the Korean Moneyauction and Popfunding no figures were available. Also omitted are some services that did not reply to information requests.

Note that Prosper.com was closed for most of the observed time span and did not make the minimum cutoff for the table. Also note that Zopa Italy is currently closed.

For a table listing more p2p lending companies check previous ‘P2P Lending Companies by Loan Volume – Jan. 09‘.

Especially british Zopa and the German services show strong growth lately. Smava nearly doubled loan volume in July compared to June (chart), whereas Auxmoney tripled it (chart). At Smava currently even 25,000 Euro loans (approx. 35,750 US$) are funded with bids in only 4 minutes (!) bidding time (example loan).

On the other hand MYC4’s growth slowed in the last months (chart) due to problems with the providers loan picks.

Zopa.it has posted a message on their frontpage that the Bank of Italy has revoked the licence to act as a financial intermediary.

As a result Zopa Italy has currently stopped issuing new loans and accepting new lenders.

EDIT: Speculation – It may have to do with this order of the Bank of Italy, which came into effect on July, 1st limiting the max. allowable interest rates.

UPDATED July 14th – Information provided by Carlo Vitali, Zopa Italy:

I can assure you that the action of Bank of Italy has nothing to do with this order of the Bank of Italy. The document you refer to has quarterly releases and it simply states the average interest rates for various credit products and says that any interest rate higher than 1.5x the average is considered usury (and therefore is illegal).
Zopa has never quoted a single loan even close to usury rate and our average rates are really appreciated by borrowers being in average 9,6 APR against a 15% industry average.
Bank of Italy accuse us of operating banking activity without being a bank while we sustain that we are just intermediating payments between private lenders and borrowers. Accusation is based on the fact that we have a transit lender account, where the money stays for few days, maximum a couple of weeks, before going out in loans. On this account we don’t get any interest and is not part of the assets of Zopa Italia. Nevertheless we had proposed an operative solution to solve the issue and we hope we will get the chance to implement it and reassume the business. I remind you that we got an authorization from Bank of Italy before launching Zopa in Italy.

Thanks to Carlo Vitali, for providing P2P-Banking.com with this information on the status.

British p2p lending company Zopa has recently entered two partnerships.

Zopa Prime

Zopa partners with the Charity PRIME to offer loans to entrepreneurs over 50 starting or running a business. The loan is not a loan to the business but a personal loan of up to 15,000 GBP (approx 24,125 US$). PRIME is the Prince’s Initiative for Mature Enterprise. The charity’s role is to vet the business plan of the applicant.

Lenders benefit because all Zopa prime loan listings are 50% guaranteed by PRIME. More details on how to obtain a loan.

Zopa and Good Energy

Zopa also partnered with Good Energy, a 100% renewable electricity supplier. Customers of Good Energy can use a Zopa loan listing to fund the initial installation cost of solar panels or wind turbines. In this partnership Zopa uses affiliate links with a branded landing page:
http://www.goodenergy.co.uk/affiliates/zopa

Benefits for Zopa from the partnerships are:

1. More borrowers
2. More quality without more costs – borrowers are vetted/screened by partners
3. 50% of loan amount secured for PRIME loans
4. Possibly earning referral fees from the affiliate link to Good Energy
5. Great story for press coverage and marketing (catchwords:  “Prince Charles”, “renewable energy”, “credit crunch”, “older age”, …)

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