P2P-Banking.com

CBS recently featured Prosper and Lendingclub under the headline "Beating the financial giants at their own game".

Prosper Days 2008 took place Monday and Tuesday. Judging from the impressions of attending lenders, who blogged about it, it was a well organised event, but for seasoned lenders there were few news announced. No news about the long awaited secondary market. One blogger sees the Bidding via API function as highlight. Further news is that Prosper will start suing borrowers who defaulted on their loans. This could improve results in the collection process, where effiency is low. Explanations of Prosper about which changes were tested in the collection process were appreciated. 
A good improvement will be Prosper's plan to change payment dates. So far the date a payment is due has been dependent on the initiation date of the loan. Soon payment dates will be matched with borrowers pay day. I am sure this will reduce lates, but I do wonder why such an obvious and easy change was not implemented much earlier. Some of the international sites from inception took into consideration at which time of the month the borrowers are likely to be liquid when setting payment dates.

I hope Prosper will publish videos of the session on their website, like they did with the Prosper Days 2007. 

Immediately following up on the previous post on Prosper.com, the list of new features at Prosper is now known. Most notable are:

• Lenders can turn standing orders into portfolio plans. The interesting part is that lenders can share (publish) their portfolio plans on their member page and other lenders can use it for themselves.
• Bidding via API. This allows bidding to be delegated to third party applications. Much like the bid snipers and bidding agents it now becomes possible to entrust third party applications to invest money at Prosper. It remains to be seen how lenders will make use of this
• Referral award for new borrowers raised from 35 US$ to 50 US$. Example button below. If you use that and your loan is funded, I am paid 50 US$.

The Prosper Days 2008, next week Monday and Tuesday in San Francisco, are the main yearly event by Prosper.com. The schedule covers topics like borrower experiences, managing large portfolios, earning a risk adjusted return, collections. You can still register for 55 US$ (includes all sessions and meals).

Several blogs already speculate if and which new features will be announced at the Prosper Days 2008. Traveler wrote a long post on that yesterday. 

2007 was a year of launch and growth for most players. What trends in peer to peer lending can be expected in 2008?

More competition and entering more national markets (probability 100%)
In many markets multiple p2p lending services will compete for the attention of lenders and borrowers, especially in the largest market: In the United States Globefunder.com and Loanio.com will launch. In other markets, where there is no national p2p lending service established yet (e.g. Canada, New Zealand, Spain), p2p lending will be introduced by the launch of a service.

Insurance against defaults (probability 75%)
Not totally new, since Boober.nl and Smava.de already offer some protection of the loan principal. Insurance can be implemented as a classical insurance product (supplied by an insurance company) or as a market mechanism, spreading the risk over multiple loans.

Secondary market (probability 25%)
One of the disadvantages for lenders currently is that on all p2p lending platforms, the invested money i locked in for the duration of the loan term. Prosper.com has allready announced that it plans a secondary market, enabling lenders to sell and buy loans any time. Depending on the market there are huge regulatory hurdles to allow trading of loans. For example German executives told P2P-Banking.com that on the German market a secondary market is unlikely for years to come.

Cross-market lending (probability <25%)
Aside form the social lending approaches (Kiva, MyC4, Microplace) so far all service are open only for lenders and borrowers that live in the same market. If lenders could lend to borrowers in markets with higher key interest rate than the market the lender lives in, the advantages could outweight the risks. In the European Union due to the Euro zone there would be no currency exchange risk. Again there are steep regulatory hurdles to be taken.

Variable interest loans (probability ?)
So far all loans are for fixed terms (prepayment allowed) with fixed interest rates. Variable interest loans could add flexibility. The interest rate could rise or decline following an indicator (e.g. market prime rate). Another possibility would be a mechanism where the variable interest rate would rise or fall as a result of the level of defaults of the credit grade. This could protect lenders, if the actual default ratio is higher then the forecasted default ratio.

Third party bidding management (probability?)
Just a thought. Lenders could allow a third party to manage their portfolio. Like an investment funds the lender would invest an amount of money, while the funds manager does the actual selection of loans. This could possibly be done by a sophisticated software (would you trust this?) selecting loans by statistical analysis of performance of loans with similiar parameters or by a fonds manager. The later is unlikely because the amount of time needed for each loan is too high to be covered by fees.

I'll check at the end of 2008 to see how these trends developed.

More and more p2p lending services are launching, each catering to different markets and different target audiences. Some derive more features from "ancestors" Prosper or Zopa, some less.

All follow the aim to allow lenders to directly lend money to borrowers without a bank acting as intermediary. This aim is sometimes not pursued strictly to the point. Smava actually partnered with a bank to comply with regulation, Zopa US partnered with credit unions, but nevertheless it serves as comprehensive definition.

Dividing p2p lending services in categories could follow several possible factors:

• price building mechanism (auction/non-auction; interest set by platform/by borrower/by lender)
• purpose of loan (private/business/both)
• social lending vs. lending for profit

I think the last factor is most useful for the definition of categories. It affects all parts of the service from marketing to operations. The differentiation is in the objective the majority of the lenders had when selecting the platform. Were they attracted by the motivation to help an individual through a loan or by the motivation to earn interest? (more…)

Effective today Prosper.com has raised the closing fees for borrowers:

…The rationale behind this increase is to enable us to better cover our administrative costs and bring our fees more in line with the market. We have endeavored to continue to keep the fees very straightforward for our borrowers.

The origination fee schedule for borrowers of first and second loans will be as follows:

AA 1.00% (no change)
A 2.00%
B 2.00%
C 3.00%
D 3.00%
E 3.00%
HR 3.00%

…

Origination fees paid by existing borrowers and for listings that have already been created will not be impacted.

2007 was an exciting and eventful year in the development of peer to peer lending. Looking back these were the highlights:

• February: Boober.nl launches the first p2p lending service in the Netherlands.
  Prosper.com raises required borrower credit score to 520 and introduces other major changes
• March: Smava.de launches German p2p lending service
• April: Fairrates.dk offers person to person lending in Denmark
• May: Lendingclub.com launch in the US, initially limited to Facebook members
• June: Prosper raises another 20M US$ VC. PPdai p2p lending launch in China
• July: Globefunder raises 1.5M US$ VC 
• August: Boober is temporarily forced to stop lending by financial authorities. MyC4, which allows lenders to fund microloans to African entrepreneurs, grows steadily while still in private beta 
• September: Kiva sold out after extensive media coverage.
• October: Microplace launches with microlending. Microplace is an Ebay company. Australia gets peer to peer lending through iGrin. Zopa UK launches 'Zopa Listings'. Prosper portfolio plans introduced. A Prosper SEC filing is the first step towards a secondary market for Prosper loans
• November: Boober and Zopa launch in Italy. Prosper reaches 100 million US$ loan volume.
• December: Zopa US launch. Lendingclub goes nationwide. Canadian Communitylend receives 2.5M VC. In Sweden Loanland is the first p2p lending service.

I will write another article on which trends to expect in p2p lending in 2008.

Lendingclub.com announced today that now users of all 50 states can borrow money through Lendingclub.

Prosper.com is covering 47 states, but in some states borrowing is restricted to business purpose loans. 

The Wikipedia article on Prosper was for months subject to heated editing and deleting. Not much diplomacy. Some edits wanted to get as much criticism in as possible while others removed as much negative tone as possible to get it more neutral. Currently the article is locked.
See the discussion on what should be stated in the article in the future when it will be unlocked again.