Internet ventures are dependant to a certain degree to new visitors that are referred to them via search engines. A visitor that did a search on a very specific search term, e.g. ‘get a personal loan’ will have a very high chance to sign up if after that search he is introduced to the Prosper or Lendingclub website. There are tools that measure how ‘visible’ a domain is on Google and other search engines providing an index chart, that allows to compare the visibility of several websites.
Prosper’s visibility index (blue line) is much higher than Lendingclub’s. Prosper.com ranks good for more and more important keywords in organic search rankings. Organic search means, that Prosper shows in a the search results at search engines that are not paid ads. But which search terms do the actually rank for? Read the rest of this entry »
I did some research on use of Google Adwords in the online marketing strategy of Zopa, Funding Circle and Ratesetter.
Who is most active in search engine advertising?
I was surprised to see that Funding Circle is the most active in advertising on Google Adwords.
The chart shows that Fundingcircle had active ads nearly the whole year, while Zopa ran the ads only for certain intervals and Ratesetter only gave it a small try. Read the rest of this entry »
I really like this time. The new year lies ahead with crispy, yet unknown innovations. What p2p lending developments might happen in 2012. Here are some personal opinions.
Last year I failed big time with most of my predictions for 2012 not coming true.
Deeper integration of mobile (probability <25%) Can you use a p2p lending service from a Smartphone? Sure. Some even have special apps for that purpose. But that’s not what we are talking about here. We are at the advent of a couple years timespan where several players (compare this infographic) will be fighting over market shares in the developing mobile payment market. If there is a role for p2p lending services, it is yet undiscovered (aside from the use p2p microfinance makes of it in underdeveloped countries).
Introduction of a p2p financed ‘credit card’ (probability very low) Carried over from last year – did not happen I envision a p2p lending service where the borrower does not get a loan in one full amount initially but can access liquidity on demand (within a predefined credit line). From the funding side this would work somewhat like lenders investing in Ratesetter’s rolling monthly loans. On the borrower side the customer could either request an additional payout via a web-interface or more sophisticated the service could issue a branded credit card / debit card for that purpose, enabling the customer to access cash instantly on an ATM.
This concept has very interesting advantages as it allows the p2p lending service to build a durable relationship to the borrowers. And for the borrowers it offers the potential of lower rates on short term debt than the high rates credit cards typically carry.
In January 2011 I wrote down my predictions for p2p lending trends in 2011. Now let’s see how far I was off. The black text is my original prediction, with the review added in green and yellow.
Advent of whitelabel providers (probability 100%) Okay let’s start this with a safe bet. In 2011 there will be 1-2 companies offering a solution that can be branded and used by p2p lending services and / or p2p microfinance sites. The interesting question here is how the acceptance by potential customers will be. My guess is that it will be slow selling until the companies have set the first pilot customer live. While there are now whitelabel providers, their business seems to have been very slow in 2011. It seems that the first areas where we will see some activity is possibly p2p equity. As for conventional p2p lending – the companies supplying solutions have become more sophisticated and at least one as adopted their price model. It is now more a revenue sharing deal rather than a big upfront payment, that most startups could struggle with.
Introduction of a p2p financed ‘credit card’ (probability very low)
I envision a p2p lending service where the borrower does not get a loan in one full amount initially but can access liquidity on demand (within a predefined credit line). From the funding side this would work somewhat like lenders investing in Ratesetter’s rolling monthly loans. On the borrower side the customer could either request an additional payout via a web-interface or more sophisticated the service could issue a branded credit card / debit card for that purpose, enabling the customer to access cash instantly on an ATM.
This concept has very interesting advantages as it allows the p2p lending service to build a durable relationship to the borrowers. And for the borrowers it offers the potential of lower rates on short term debt than the high rates credit cards typically carry.
Like the idea and want to discuss/develop it further? Self-promotion plug: You can hire me as a consultant. Has not happened.
A bank will acquire an existing p2p lending service (probability <25%) Carried over from last year – did not happen
2011 might see a bank (or other financial institution) buying a running p2p lending service.
Buying will be much faster, cheaper and risk-less than if the bank tries to build a new service. Largest Italian private Bank bought at least a part. Read the rest of this entry »
Zopa Italy will rebrand and change domain and company name. The new service will be available at Smartika.it. Maurizio Sella, CEO of Zopa Italy announced that the franchise agreement with Zopa has been resolved. The new company operates under the status of a payment institute.
P2P microfinance service Milaap.org reports the milestone of 10 million indian rupees (approx 190,000 US$) lent in 18 months with a repayment rate of 100% so far. Good news right in time for Christmas!
Kiva Zip is an experimental site facilitating direct p2p microfinance loans without any intermediaries. The original Kiva model relies on MFIs (microfinance institutions) which locally validate borrower request and disburse the money and collect the repayments.
Kiva Zip eliminates the intermediaries directly connecting lender and borrower in person to person microlending. This will reduce interest rates for the borrowers (which during the initial testing phase of Kiva Zip pay 0% interest). The use of direct electronic and/or mobile payments further reduce the costs of the loan transactions.
This is the second part of an interview with Julia Kurnia, Director and Founder of Zidisha.org.
Does the Euro crisis in any way impact Zidisha’s business?
The Euro is the home currency of many of our lenders. To the extent that the Euro crisis causes it to depreciate against the US dollar (in which Zidisha account balances are denominated) and against the borrowers’ currencies in which loan values are fixed, it will increase financial returns when these funds are converted back to Euros.
That said, lending with Zidisha is intended to be a philanthropic activity, and most of our members seek to generate social benefits in a way that is financially sustainable. Zidisha loans typically allow economically disadvantaged households to expand their cash businesses to the point where incomes are increased by 150% to 200%. The additional cash is very often invested in the children’s education – both by providing sufficient living income so that teenagers do not need to drop out of school to support their families, and by covering the costs of continued schooling. The return to society from this kind of investment in education of the next generation of the rural poor in developing countries is impossible to quantify. This will continue to be true regardless of currency fluctuations.
A week ago Zidisha got a new design. What is new?
Our new design reflects feedback from the Zidisha community, and the growth of our organization. We opted for a clean, modern style and an uncluttered, simple layout that is in keeping with our values of directness and transparency. The new site is more effortless to navigate, easier to learn and read about Zidisha entrepreneurs, and simpler than ever to make a loan. We’ve also included more social media buttons so that visitors can conveniently share Zidisha with friends and family, and connect with us via Facebook and Twitter.
Zidisha is doing direct p2p lending. Do you think it is likely that there will be a substantial shift from indirect p2p lending (like Kiva does) to a direct model without MFIs in the future?
Yes, I think that is the future of online microlending. As Zidisha has proven that the concept is viable, I’m sure that we will inspire many similar initiatives. I expect to see other organizations – both new start-ups and established platforms – experiment with direct P2P lending across the international wealth divide. This will be a welcome development, generating positive social impact beyond the reach of our organization, valuable learning opportunities for P2P lending and microfinance practitioners, and useful variety for our clients. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday I invested a small amount and will become a shareholder of Crowdcube Ltd., which runs the British p2p equity marketplace Crowdcube.com (see earlier articles about Crowdcube). Crowdcube is currently using it’s own platform to raise 300,000 GBP (approx. 470K US$) for a stake of 9% in the company.
If you decide quick, you can become a shareholder of Crowdcub too (minimum investment is 10 GBP). For UK residents investments of over 500 GBP mean they are eligible for a 30% income tax rebate under the EIS scheme. At the time of this writing the pitch is 54% funded and it looks like it will fully fund within the next days.
Crowdcube provides a slide presentation and a forecast. The forecast is a bit sketchy with some figures being debatable in my view but overall I think Crowdcube is a promising venture for the following reasons:
The founders achieved quite a lot in the short time since launch
Good marketing angle. New pitches might allow them to uphold high PR resonance (at least locally and industry sector specific). With luck and craftsmanship they might achieve equal marketing spin in p2p equity as Kickstarter has achieved in crowdfunding
I expect p2p equity in UK to get a boost by rising tax reliefs (50% !) under new SEIS scheme (see yesterday’s post)
Crowdcube, if growing fast, might reach a level where (for UK) it profits from network effect. However the pitch is missing competitor analysis and strategies to deal with them.
Good revenue/cost ratio. With less (technical) complexity than say Zopa or Ratesetter (but much higher risk for investors in pitches)
Should they succeed in creating a secondary market that is not awkward/clumsy in the future, then that will heighten the attractiveness for investors as it offers liquidity for the investments
I am fairly optimistic that the influx of pitches won’t be a problem. It is hard to gauge how the funding success percentage of these will be as that depends on the quality of pitches. The single biggest threat to Crowdcube’s business model in my view is the prossibility of one of the companies funded at the market place failing big time and leaving very unsatisfied investors.
I plan to post further reviews of the progress (naturally I won’t share any confidential data made available to shareholders).
German laws require a banking license to hand out loans. To comply with regulation the two active German p2p lending services partner with a transaction bank, which originates funded loans and then sells the debt claim to the individuals (’lenders’) that did bid on the loan request on the p2p lending marketplace. Smava now switched it’s bank partner. Since Smava’s launch in 2007 the bank partner was the biw Bank für Investments und Wertpapiere AG. For all new loans after Dec. 1st, Smava cooperates with the Fidor Bank AG (see earlier coverage on Fidor). Smava feels that Fidor is a great match and praises the integration advantage Fidor offers with its web APIs. The change does not bring any immediate benefits for lenders other than a) unlend money will now earn 0.5% interest p.a. and b) the e-money license of Fidor allows lenders to start lending without verifying identity first – but that’s rather symbolic as it applies only to amounts of up to 500 Euro (and the minimum bid on Smava is 250 Euro) meaning that new lenders could test Smava with up to 2 bids before going through postal identification process.
P2P Equity
Smarchive, the fourth startup pitching at German marketplace Seedmatch (see earlier coverage on Seedmatch) raised 100,000 Euro in less than 3 days. The pitch originally was for 50K, but was oversubscribed to the maximum possible amount (100K).
Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme (SEIS)
In the UK the market the surrounding conditions for the emerging p2p equity market get better and better. From April 2012 investors in eligible startups will be able to claim 50 percent income tax relief (on a maximum investment of 100,000 GBP per year). The minimum required investment is just 500 GBP per startup. The new law will replace the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) which currently already offers a generous 30% tax break. The British government will also ease some of the restrictions of the current EIS scheme.
The SEIS will bring a huge boost to p2p equity marketplaces in the UK.
Maybe an idea to be copied in other legislations to foster startup foundation?
ThisisMoney on P2P Lending Risiks and Quakle
ThisisMoney has two (1,2) long articles on the failure of Quakle and risks associated for lenders with p2p lending in general. While not wrong, the articles oversimplify some things. And actually there are more risks for lenders then the two mentioned (compare my old article ‘For Debate: A Flaw in Current P2P Lending Models?‘). The author is a strong advocate of the P2P Finance Association: ‘Checking for the association membership is crucial. It’s a self-governing industry body, so does not carry the same weight as regulation by the Financial Services Authority – something the industry wants but lacks as yet – and is currently the best benchmark for those considering lending.‘. Not a bad advice, but with the association and the market so young, I see that as a bit of limiting, possibly excluding any new entrants that might launch.
Yesterday I invested a small amount and will become a shareholder of Crowdcube Ltd., which runs the British p2p equity marketplace 
