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tjohnsn
Joined: 22 Nov 2007 Posts: 4 Location: Georgia
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Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:36 pm Post subject: ADVICE TO NEW PROSPER LENDERS |
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Here's some advice to new prosper lenders from someone who has made over 270 Prosper loans and invested over 14K...
RULE #1: Never, and I mean NEVER, lend more than $50 per loan.
RULE #2: After observing rule #1, make sure that you lend to HOMEOWNERS.
RULE #3: After observing rule #1, make the most loans to higher credit scores and fewer loans to lower credit scores.
** Have fun, follow these rules, and you'll get a better return than you'd get from a bank savings account **
 _________________ Prosper Forums - Uniden
Propser ID - Georgia_Dad |
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Mark12547

Joined: 22 Nov 2007 Posts: 4
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Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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How about current delinquencies? If the borrower hasn't been current with other parties, it lowers the odds that the borrower will be current with Prosper.
Also, a large number in inquiries (more than four in the last six months) could be desperation for credit. (It could also be shopping for a mortgage or shopping for a car loan, both of which people often do comparative shopping, each place they ask for rates likely generating an inquiry).
I also don't like large D/I. My preference, back when I was bidding, is no more than 20% D/I, but up to 40% could be ok.
I also don't like excessive revolving debt or a high utilization ratio.
One can check the "Lend" -> "Performance" tab on Prosper.com to check some numbers for various filterings if one wants to check to see how a combination of various criteria have done in the past. Of course, the future may be different now that Portfolios have come on board and as bid advisories have been added to the bid screen. However, it can still be educational to try various combinations of criteria on the Performance page and take to heart the numbers there if the resulting sample size implies statistical significance.
But then, what do I know? I stopped lending last March. _________________ Shira: "If you don’t trust Prosper to detect fraud ..., you should reconsider whether you want to lend on Prosper." |
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vinnie
Joined: 22 Nov 2007 Posts: 6
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Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 5:40 am Post subject: Re: ADVICE TO NEW PROSPER LENDERS |
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| tjohnsn wrote: | Here's some advice to new prosper lenders from someone who has made over 270 Prosper loans and invested over 14K...
RULE #1: Never, and I mean NEVER, lend more than $50 per loan.
RULE #2: After observing rule #1, make sure that you lend to HOMEOWNERS.
RULE #3: After observing rule #1, make the most loans to higher credit scores and fewer loans to lower credit scores.
** Have fun, follow these rules, and you'll get a better return than you'd get from a bank savings account **
 |
All of those rules are poor.
My rules:
1) lend 2-3% of your intended portfolio to each.
2) Homeownership is neutral, but a strong negative if the loan is obtained in the last few years
3) AA and A borrowers on prosper default at a significant rate, so that you cannot make a significant profit. The highest profit, after 9 months default, is on D loans.
You can prove point 2a and 3 using the data on lendingstats. 2b follows from the current mortgage crisis. If you are targeting $100,000 investment, you will go blind lending in $50 increments.
Mark is right, current DQ' is the most significant Scorex box indicator. DTI is a weak indicator, according to the LS data.
Best indicator: Lend to people you know. |
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tjohnsn
Joined: 22 Nov 2007 Posts: 4 Location: Georgia
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Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject: Mark's right - Vinnie's wrong |
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You're right Mark. I go with "0" defaults - if they have any defaults, I don't do the loan. I also prefer borrowers with 20% DTI or lower.
The reason I prefer homeowners is that it provides additional leverage for the collection agency and when the defaulted loan is auctioned you get more for it.
Vinnie obviously hasn't been a lender for very long. All it will take is for two or three of his loans to default and he'll be saying "bye bye" to his profit. In order to spread out your risk, stick to the $50 rule - it takes more time to line up your loans, but it's worth it in the end. _________________ Prosper Forums - Uniden
Propser ID - Georgia_Dad |
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tjohnsn
Joined: 22 Nov 2007 Posts: 4 Location: Georgia
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Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 2:25 pm Post subject: PS |
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PS - After lending for 1.5 years, my annualized real return is still over 11%. You'll see people who claim higher returns, but over time, they loose those high returns and THEN SOME through defaults - _________________ Prosper Forums - Uniden
Propser ID - Georgia_Dad |
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vinnie
Joined: 22 Nov 2007 Posts: 6
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Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Mark's right - Vinnie's wrong |
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| tjohnsn wrote: |
Vinnie obviously hasn't been a lender for very long. All it will take is for two or three of his loans to default and he'll be saying "bye bye" to his profit. In order to spread out your risk, stick to the $50 rule - it takes more time to line up your loans, but it's worth it in the end. |
Why was that called for? My point is that I don't see the difference between making only $50 loans, or only $200 loans, or only $2000 loans, on rate of return. It has only to do with how much you anticipate funding your portfolio, how much diversification you think is necessary, and how much you enjoy trolling listings.
I'm no newcomer, though you have been around almost twice as long as I have. From your LS portfolio below, I don't see your anticipated rate at quite 11%, but it is still nice:
http://www.lendingstats.com/memberProfile?lenderId=Georgia_Dad
However, if you look at your portfolio in detail, you're making only 7.17% on the AA loans, and 9.97% on your D loans.
Similarly, you're making 8.51% on your homeowners, and 8.64 on your non-homeowners.
4.29% of your AA-B loans are late or defaulted ($% by Loan amount, less default sale). Is that more than you anticipated? You're making 8.33% from those three grades.
5.21% of your D-E loans are late or defaulted. Does it surprise you that this is not much different from the AA-B loans? You're making 11.54% from these two grades.
From your own portfolio, the pat points you laid out in the beginning are shown to be false.
You didn't comment on my point about lending to folks you know. Half of my portfolio is in that category. Do you know half your borrowers?
Vinnie
http://www.lendingstats.com/memberProfile?lenderId=Vinnie_Licato |
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